How many days remain for Gordon Brown?

Posted on June 3, 2009 by stacyherbert| 41 Comments

Stacy Summary: My bet is by June 8, Brown is toast. And Alan Johnson will replace him. Okay, now your predictions . . . how many more days in office for Brown? And who will replace him?

Hazel Blears resigns from Cabinet as plot to topple Brown gathers

Lightning coup to oust Brown

Labour rebels want Brown to vacate Number 10 by end of June

Looking for 80 ‘go now’ signatures

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41 Responses to How many days remain for Gordon Brown?

bzmoore | June 4, 2009 at 2:16 pm |

PPP or Public Private Pillage. These things are great for the Private side. We have a highway project locally which is a PP or P^2 which has gone off the rails.

Essentially there is no reason for the private side to limit costs because they are guaranteed a ROI. So if they spend $10M then they get say 10% or $1M in profit. If they spend $100M then they get 10x the profit.

We have a highway exchange here that could have been done with one cloverleaf. The PP created 17 overpasses and bridges and a public debt at a profit for the next 30 years for the private side. Before anyone could see what was going on the thing was half built and I’m sure the Gov paid a hefty exit fee to get out of the rest of the project. So my grandchildren will be paying for this monstrosity, assuming I ever have some.

These things are very seductive to politicians; they spend money create jobs and the architects and engineering contractors and banks love them. Only a knowledgeable and aware public can avoid the crack cocaine of a PPP.
Phil | June 4, 2009 at 2:57 am |

@Mini US … ‘profit taking’

MU,
if that was the only BS they spewed, I would be happy !

I wrote a software module to analyze up/downgrades issued on various stocks – Graphically , and historically of course !
The results were NOT funny !
Mini US | June 4, 2009 at 2:06 am |

My off topic question is…
Why do economists say Stocks or Gold fell today on ‘profit taking’ ?
Is this profit taking/manipulation or do they just say this because they don’t really know?
It just seems a bit lame.
Thanks.
Hawk of Terror | June 4, 2009 at 12:30 am |

@ Stacy

I agree, although in this case, i don’t know if I’d call it a “jubilee.” The bond vigilantes will invoke NEMESIS, the greek goddess of retributive justice that will humble HUBRIS and usher in a new era of prudence. Indeed, the US & co. cannot conceivable pay back their debts, but that does not prevent the vigilantes from extracting blood from a stone … one way or another, that is, with or without force. But that of course implies tremendous turmoil, both domestic and international!

Also, with respect to the possibility of printing cash to keep depositors happy, I suspect that if/when this “printing” becomes of a sufficiently large magnitude to threaten bond holders, the bond vigilantes will revolt! Unlike Weimar Germany, Argentina or Zimbabwe, the US Bond market is a much bigger and more potent force to be reckoned with. It essentially implies a margin call on US Dollar Hegemony, and that is not something to be taken lightly! Of course, it is always possible that policy makers are more than willing to declare a “de facto” default on the currency via hyper-inflation and implode the bond market. But I think, given a choice, policy makers will rather opt for deflation and sell out the people (e.g. cut services and sell state assets etc.) than hyper-inflate and sell out whatever illusion of power they may have had? Also, don’t you think that if things get to that stage, foreign creditors would be more than happy to offer additional incentives to US policy makers to encourage them to sell out the US public? Needless to say, if things get even remotely to that stage, we will see a revolution of one sort or another!
stacyherbert | June 3, 2009 at 11:45 pm |

@Hawk of Terror – I think we will eventually see what has been used for thousands of years up until very modern history . . . and that is the debt jubilee. All debt will have to be wiped clean for Americans, Brits, Australians. For the most part, there is no way they can ever, ever pay their debts off. History says in such a circumstance – either there will be hyperinflation and revolution or the debts are wiped away and a new era begins.
stacyherbert | June 3, 2009 at 11:42 pm |

@Mep – “Public-private partnerships” – have been used in UK over past ten years. They have mostly failed. And are failing big time now due to the problem that their money costs more than government money. With the credit crisis, they have been unable to fund their projects anywhere near the estimates they gave prior to the crisis . . . if they are able to raise finance at all. Needless to say, the executives of the private part of the partnership have not had any problem finding the tens of millions to finance their bonuses.
stacyherbert | June 3, 2009 at 11:39 pm |

@Nor84 – While, indeed, most ‘money’ is credit rather than cash these days. It still relies on faith in the banks and the financial system to remain stable. The problem will come when shopkeepers, for example, refuse to take credit anymore (as many shops in France already do btw) and accept only cash. Then the guy fixing your car demands cash too rather than your credit. Then the autoworkers demand cash payment. Then people start to ask for their savings from the bank. Etc. I believe it was something along these lines that helped start hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. The government started printing cash in order to maintain faith that they could meet all the demand for it.
stacyherbert | June 3, 2009 at 11:32 pm |

@Sam – agreed; anyone think, however, that these ‘poll fears’ are overblown? What if Labour shocks everyone by doing well in European elections? Whatever I think it is a real inflection point . . . people don’t have faith in central banks, banks, currencies, the economy or the politicians who created this system for the financial oligarchs.
Hawk of Terror | June 3, 2009 at 10:57 pm |

@ Nor84

I agree. Credit expansion vs printing Green Backs are two different things. However, I would just add that, lowering interest rates by itself is not sufficient, it also requires a desire to speculate (opposed to save) for the money multiplier to come into effect. My point is that with the dramatic fall in asset prices and the corresponding destruction of “wealth,” aside from occasional bear market rallies, the overall appetite to speculate is less now than it was a year ago. So even though we can see the resumption of speculation from time to time, and with it a resumption of fears about inflation, the over-riding trend is that the desire to speculate is tapering off, and conversely, banks are increasingly reluctant to encourage speculation (just to put a nail in the coffin). With every subsequent correction in the markets, this trend will be reinforced, and as such, it is irrelevant whether interest rates are 0%, because with falling asset prices, who would want to speculate with even a 0% interest rate? As such, EITHER high inflation OR hyper-inflation seem unlikely (at least expressed in USD in the next few years).

But I agree, how the end game will shape up in the US and especially UK will be interesting to see, b/c at this point, the fiscal discipline that is demanded by savers and vigilantes is almost inconceivable! And on this point I agree about sovereign debt default / hyper-inflation as a distinct possibility. Perhaps the US should think about putting Alaska and Hawaii on the property market?
Sam | June 3, 2009 at 10:44 pm |

What difference does it make? Replacing one puppet with another. It’s theatre.
Nor84 | June 3, 2009 at 10:22 pm |

@ Hawk of Terror

Indeed the market wants to contract, save and cause deflation. That causing the dollar to strengthen, the US and UK would have to defalt, atlest partaly on their sovereign debt, giving the economy a solid blow making the recovery faster.

But this is not the case, im saying that hyperinflation would not be possible with the current system, you would have to change it to make it possible, high inflation is something else though.
If you return to acualy printing paper money, (not expanding credit) you are talking about something else. The fed are not printing that much paper compared to credit money.

That is my question, is even hyperinflation possible with such a system?

Yes the fed can adjust interest rates, and its a very powerfull long term tool. Most of the money is made when people like you and me takes loans and mortages. When banks loans to eachother, it does not go into circulation (like most of the bailouts)

So, the base money supply is incrised yes, but the credit money is just sitting on the banks balancesheets, noone wants to loan money, and the banks dont want to lend it, there is no circulation, therby not possible with Hyperinflation.

Im not an absolutist, so please, if anyone can explain in more or less simple terms how i am wrong, i would appriciate it, because this is something i have a problem understanding.
Mep | June 3, 2009 at 8:30 pm |

There’s a blip on the economic shock therapy radar screen in the US: respectable, freedom-loving public servants in the form of governors are starting to float ideas about the merits and need to start looking to “public-private partnerships” to solve our economic woes:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gov-david-a-paterson/the-moment-for-public-pri_b_210972.html
Vlado | June 3, 2009 at 7:49 pm |

http://www.crashmaker.com/
I haven’t read the novel, but judging on the wisdom that Victor Sperandeo spills in his first two books from the beginning of the nineties I imagine that it is mind blowing. One quote from the web site: “In CRA$HMAKER, Victor Sperandeo draws from his years of experience on Wall Street a brilliant trading strategy that uses the Federal Reserve itself to bring down not only the markets, but also the political Establishment.
Although so far only fiction, his strategy could become fact sooner than anyone thinks, if only the right circumstances developed.”
I wonder if our Bond (Stock, Commodities) Vigilantes have read this book, treating it as a manual of the warfare techniques against the Fed. On the other hand, I apologise if somebody else already tried to make an intrigue here on the issue of this novel. Stacy&Max, have you read this one? Best regards to all.
Youri Carma | June 3, 2009 at 7:03 pm |

Peter Schiff said “they faked deflation and now ever body is betting on inflation” but in my opinion deflation and inflation have been/are going on. Especially visible in the housing market by lacking demand but also in other areas. Not in the full blow of deflation though and partly lower oil prices could make price cuts possible. The full deflation will be experienced after more severe inflation.

So, Deflation–>Inflation–>Deflation again but more severe is my prediction.
Youri Carma | June 3, 2009 at 6:49 pm |

From porn to political chaos http://tinyurl.com/p46gru
Hawk of Terror | June 3, 2009 at 6:35 pm |

@ Mini US

The fundamentals of the US Dollar are horrible. But in todays fiat/credit based system, strength is a sign of weakness. The US is the weakest link, so it follows that this should be accompanied by a strong US Dollar. The Aussie Dollar has been the beneficiary of the global carry trade, and while “fundamentally” Australia has good prospects (e.g. it has a lot of rocks), unless the credit fueled mania is sustained, and moreover, revisits the lofty heights of 2007 / 2008, it seems that these rocks are bound to weigh down the Australian Dollar in the mean time. Also, Australia has a sizeable foreign debt which acts as leverage on the upside, but works in the reverse on the downside. ?
Hawk of Terror | June 3, 2009 at 6:18 pm |

@ Nor84

Wouldn’t deflation be a more likely outcome on a “credit” based system? Even though the Fed et al. are issuing credit at record rates, you cannot force people to take out loans, and given the dramatic fall in asset prices around the world, this is likely to undermine the “money multiplier” effect. (And as every bubble in history clearly illustrates, speculators chase prices on the way UP, not on the way DOWN!) As for the argument that the Government debt bubble / quantitative easing is going to off-set the imploding private debt bubble, it seems the bond market vigilantes will have something to say about that. Unless our policy makers are willing to throw it all away, savers and vigilantes will force discipline on policy makers (Cf. California as a window into the future, http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2009/06/01/daily29.html).

Paradoxically then, deflation and a strong US Dollar would be the worst case scenario for our dear policy makers, because it undermines their Casino Gulag State model. Indeed, they would like nothing more than a weak US Dollar, and as we have seen in the last few months, a weak US Dollar is associated with a return of optimism, “green shoots” etc. etc.
Youri Carma | June 3, 2009 at 6:13 pm |

@Mother Earth “Brown is still very much at the top of his game”

What game would that be? How to make a better imitation of Mr. Bean? How to sell gold at even a lower price? How to tell people that robin them is the own MP business like opening free accounts to buy Duck shafts where my whole family can live in and ticketing everything I want, porn included. How do you manage to use taxpayer money to buy porn in th\e first place?
Nor84 | June 3, 2009 at 4:35 pm |

This has nothing to do with the above, sorry.

I have been reading alot on economy, even read the entire Wealth of nations and many more modern books, and there is one thing i have always been wondering, a thing that noone seems to be talking about.

When it comes to hyperinflation, how would that work on a credit based monetary system? I know that in Norway only about 10% of the money is Fiat money, where the rest is credit money you can see when you go to a ATM. I dont think I have heard this beeing mentioned at all. (Few people use paper money at all, just a visa card)

Wouldnt the outcome simply be high inflation for a long time, and not hyperinflation? (using the US and UK as the example)

-From Norway
Mini US | June 3, 2009 at 4:18 pm |

Hey guys and gals.
Just read this.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25585074-5017999,00.html
The media are still talking about $US as a safe haven for risk aversion!?!?!?!?!
‘Safe as houses’ you might say!?!?!?!??!
Thnaks ME. Great to see Sean Connery, he was the best Bond ever.
Mike/Liverpool | June 3, 2009 at 3:53 pm |

What have we got on :-the Lisbon Treaty. ?
Should i worry?
Mike
Mother Earth | June 3, 2009 at 3:21 pm |

“Brown is still very much at the top of his game”

To have to step down because your husband bought shag movies on the government account must be extra frustrating for a woman finally in power

Its iceland on the thames, only the political crisis precedes the default..
Youri Carma | June 3, 2009 at 3:00 pm |

Jacqui Smith goes – hit by porn claims, but fatally damaged by 42 days http://tinyurl.com/q4vtwz
Aguiar | June 3, 2009 at 1:50 pm |

“US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was laughed at by an audience of Chinese students after insisting that China’s US assets are safe.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5423650/Geithner-insists-Chinese-dollar-assets-are-safe.html

Greetings from Brazil!!
frederick millen | June 3, 2009 at 1:43 pm |

@ phil
please don’t overlook my post here.
i am alsso working on a community for anarchy purposes and i have two webmasters and some three artists dedicated to artwork and computer editing.
if we get in this together maybe we both get off our lazy ass.
damn this site i need a quote button!
ANYBODY WINE WITH ME FOR A QUOTE BUTTON?
Mother Earth | June 3, 2009 at 1:13 pm |

Goldfinger.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1TmeBd9338
Grant | June 3, 2009 at 1:06 pm |

read this on a forum

“Do you expect me to rally?
No Mr Bond, I expect you to die.”
Mother Earth | June 3, 2009 at 12:46 pm |

@phil eh, ppt? perver pillaging tactics?

I think there should simply be a law against speculative investment. The real economy should be better protected..
Phil | June 3, 2009 at 12:37 pm |

@Mother Earth … “Gold”

PPT no doubt , was to be expected … makes Tiny Tim and Bankie look good !

I can just imagine how relieved the rest of the world is to be able to buy Gold & Silver cheaper today !
Phil | June 3, 2009 at 12:23 pm |

Did I post here that 2 Big WS Banks have been leasing tankers for offshore oil storage at 68,000$ per day …..

Seems the third Big WS bank wants in as well ( on oil speculation )

Denninger ….

… ” Speaking of excess liquidity…..

June 3 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by deposits, hired a newly built supertanker to store heating oil off Malta, shipbrokers reported, in the company’s first such booking in at least five years.

The bank hired the Front Queen for nine months, according to daily reports from Oslo-based SeaLeague A/S and Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers Ltd. David Wells, a spokesman for JPMorgan in London, declined to comment.

So let me see if I get this right.

The Taxpayer hands JP Morgan billions of dollars to bail them out and keep them from potentially being declared insolvent.

In return for this JP Morgan spends that money speculating on the price of oil, and in fact does one better – they take physical delivery and lease a ship to store it in, thereby withholding the oil from the market and propping up the price, hoping to be able to sell that oil at a higher price later. “….
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1087-Oh-Really-Mr.-Hoenig-and-JPM.html

JPMorgan Hires Supertanker for Storage, Brokers Say
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aYqgZUNoD7Tw
Mother Earth | June 3, 2009 at 12:20 pm |

The UK is in deep doodoo..

I was sooo looking forward to gold thorugh 1000 USD
frederick millen | June 3, 2009 at 11:25 am |

@ phil sorry being so late but if you find ANYONE capable to make a revolutionary site, i want to put money and my skill as an artist in it, i already have a sketch how it would look this site… it should be all compassing, myspace without games, and even if there were games no FARM TOWN, but maybe a game to show HOW TO MAKE SUBURBAN TOWN INTO USEFULL CULTURE
i already send some ideas to “stax and macy” and i start bloody investing in their own sceams sure gave them a coin already, but i have a lot of suggestions for projects that need to be concidered.
and i need help.
so if anyone here in the more awake establishment knows a webmaster that won’t con me please let me know.
i’ll sacrifcie all my little bit of money i don’t earn anyway for an artistic manifest that comes in the way of a site.
and i alsso need art nouveau artists actually to help me with the mainframe design but anyway. geuss they are not found here.
if anyone knows a game developer, lets make a site PROPER for this age.
MAX AND STACY CAN BE FEATURED ON THIS SITE, for the proper entertainment, but not just description of some class irrelevant to a very different future please.
gonzomarx | June 3, 2009 at 10:58 am |

Brown will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming so the men in grey suits will have to make him an offer he can’t refuse and if enough Labour MPs feel they nothing to lose from changing leaders in the slight hope it will improve there chances at an election Brown is gone.
sharon | June 3, 2009 at 10:48 am |

Just to add that Alan Johnson may well be elected as leader to run in the election.
Re: Brown leaving though, don’t forget that he has fulfilled his part in that his only job was to sign the Lisbon Treaty. Now it’s Princess Cameron’s turn to complete the plan for a totalitarian state and of course it will be too late for him to withdraw the Lisbon Treaty. It’s all just theatre and the actors play their roles, none of it’s real.

@ T…….You maybe right about the LibDems but if you read the comments on Nick Clegg’s blog (leader of the LibDems) I don’t think so. Actually it’s well worth haviing a look at the comments on the blog because they give you a real feel for how angry the public are in this country and not just on the expenses fiasco. It’s a good read because it’s not moderated so you get to see the REAL views of the people and it ain’t pretty. I think we’ll have a revolution this summer. Anyway, check out the comments and you’ll see what I mean:-

http://nickclegg.wordpress.com/2009/05/20/progress-on-expenses-reform/#comments
sharon | June 3, 2009 at 10:36 am |

Hi Stacy,
I agree that Alan Johnson is the most likely choice but I don’t think they’ll get away with putting yet another unelected prime minister into that position so my bet is it’ll be a general election and the queen (the parasite) will be asked to dissolve parliament next week so you could be right with your date of 8th June.
T | June 3, 2009 at 10:08 am |

I say the Lib Dems will replace Labour. It’s too bad that none of the other smaller parties will have enough momentum to step in. But right now that’s the situation.

Cameron and the Tories are only speaking in soundbites. I see no real difference between them and Labour.
Mother Earth | June 3, 2009 at 10:04 am |

@mike & stacey: lol

Talking about predictions..I’m pretty stoked about my gold price prediciton site..milligrambank. Place your predictions

Geithner : “(All will be ok) ‘as soon as we see the conditions for a durable recovery firmly established’ “. D U H!

Also: Monetizing the debt? “There is no risk of that in the united states”!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/02/geithner-talks-china-gm-f_n_210213.html

I think he threatened china wit commodity future wars..
chalcedonite | June 3, 2009 at 9:55 am |

Brown will … the last min of the last day in June.
Ptah | June 3, 2009 at 9:27 am |

Brown has a nice job already lined up – he didn’t plan to stick around or else he would have gone for an early election 18 months ago when he would have stood a chance of winning.

Cameron has had his representatives at Bilderberg for 3 years in succession, Brown has only had Mandy – who was always Blairs bedwarmer anyway.

Commentators including Max and Stacy have often mentioned the meltdown in terms of 3 phases ie: we are midway thru phase 1, we are at the start of phase 2 etc. Is it safe to accept we are entering the 3rd phase now that the UK’s may be the first major western democratic institution to collapse due to the depression/slump/collapse/thingy or are we still ploughing thru the 2nd phase ?

Just wondering if I should cancel the milk.
Davem | June 3, 2009 at 9:09 am |

Dump him now and let him go to work for JP Morgan
Mike/Liverpool | June 3, 2009 at 9:04 am |

Tough choice……………make him stay to witness the “End of his & Greenspan’s bubble” or dump him now?
Mike