Stacy Summary: Repeat after me, “do not enter the ‘markets,’ they are rigged.” Now say it ten times because even if you beat the riggers, you will pay! As we have seen with the trillions in bailouts. But chances are you will not beat the riggers because they have powerful computers and powerful friends.
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@ mother earth (A)
@ Kitty (B)
(A) Technical analysis? According to Andrew Lo, of MIT, this field has some merit. However, in its popularly presented form, it suffers from a lack of rational, disciplined research. For instance, price pattern interpretation is largely equivalent to a Rorschach examination where one sees what he or she has been conditioned to see.
I personally use many forms of analysis to form a conclusion: technicals; fundamentals; econometrics; etc. Being conversant with arithmetic, algebra, geometry, trigonometry, calculus, differential equations, complex variables, linear algebra, statistics, etc., I naturally prefer a mathematical orientation to my work. I find random walk to be somewhat silly and the efficient market hypothesis to be rife with so many anomalies as to be of little use in decision making. A good book by George Cooper explaining why the efficient market theory has caused so much financial grief to the world’s investment victims is, “The Origin of Financial Crises: Central Banks, Credit Bubbles, and the Efficient Market Fallacy.”
While I would never discuss any details of my own proprietary models developed over quite a long period, the financial conclusions I discuss are back by a bit more research than you see here. Besides, I usually do not simply buy or sell, but usually engage in pairs trading or in some balancing of related derivatives. I much prefer highly volatile markets. Going after, say, 10% per annum is ultimately a loser’s game, after factoring in mistakes, commissions, taxes, and inflation.
The most valuable lesson I have learned in trading is to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. This has several implications: how does one define a trend; what mathematical techniques are available to assess trending; how can one assess change of trend; what methods are available for trading within the trend; what investment vehicles are correlated with underlying physical phenomena; how does one time entries and exits; how does one establish position size; how does one manage risk in accordance with his or her personal tolerance level; etc.
Consistently profitable trading is one of the hardest endeavours of which I am aware. I wish something as easy as astrology really worked!
(B) Orson Welles was a larger than life character who was full of varied personal experiences. This video shows that he was also very full of the product he was advertising:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5LkDNu8bVU
@BW,….Imagine a world where all people were given the opportunity from birth to learn every aspect of their nature and the choice to gleen from the best minds and computors, for the best of life ! Wouldn’t that be novel ?
Let’s assume the world is not guided by private interests, who would have the brain capacity and incentive to further human progression? People and elected politicians are divided amongst themselves even within the family unit, how in the world can they steer the world. You can have the best project in the world and present it to the local community and you will find 60% of idiots who are against it. The people themselves are idiots and are the direct reason for all the laws. I don’t know whether to admire the ruling elite or hate them.
The bearded pilot is threatening with inflation!
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/share.html?s=news01n2d2eqa98
US scales back UBS demand
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_408668.html
and
Revenue gone missing
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_408527.html
tongue in cheek article on Goldman Sachs:
Bashing Goldman Sachs Is Simply a Game for Fools: Michael Lewis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a2X3hNaWcbeg&FORM=ZZNR2
an article from last month but well worth a read:
Goldman Sachs cleans up on the second Great Depression
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2009/06/22/goldman_depression/
The World Bank predicts that global economic growth will decline by 2.9 percent in 2009. That’s the worst year for the global economy since at least World War II. As measured by a comprehensive set of indicators, the global economy is on pace, so far, with the outset of the Great Depression.
Goldman Sachs, however, is expecting 2009 to be the most profitable year in its 140-year history, reports the Guardian. As a result, Goldman staffers are salivating at huge bonus payments — their biggest ever. (And reason enough that Goldman was in such a big hurry to pay back its $10 billion of TARP bailout money.)
The irony is that overall revenues in the banking and securities industries have fallen significantly in the last few years, but the collapse of Bear-Stearns and Lehman, along with the merger of Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, means fewer companies are dividing up the spoils.
Also good for Goldman: Big government deficits. The more bonds the U.S. Treasury has to sell to fund government operations, the more money Goldman makes as one of the prime brokers authorized to bid for those bonds.
David Williams, an investment banking analyst at Fox Pitt Kelton, said: “This year is shaping up to be the best year ever for investment banks, or at least those that have emerged relatively unscathed from the credit crisis.
“These banks are intermediaries in the bond markets where governments and companies are raising billions of pounds of new money. There is also a lack of competition that means they can charge huge sums for doing business.”
Last week, the firm predicted that President Barack Obama’s government could issue $3.25tn of debt before September, almost four times last year’s sum. Goldman, a prime broker of US government bonds, is expected to make hundreds of millions of dollars in profits from selling and dealing in the bonds.
What does it say about our system of economic organization that a devastating global economic contraction, complete with levels of unemployment not witnessed in decades and major industries collapsing, while states like California face bankruptcy, is turning out to be “the best year ever” for investment banks, who played such a large role in precipitating this second great depression in the making?
― Andrew Leonard
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/us/28deport.html?_r=1&ref=us
Jury verdict out on deported illegal alien brain-injured man and Martin Hospital, Stuart, Florida.
@Mini US
I’m keeping an eye on the silver price also as a possible gauge of a future dollar collapse. I think the flat line you referred to is just a result of no trading on the weekend. The fact that it occurred at 14.0 is a coincidence. However the increase in silver price is telling us something I think.
My suspicion is that the election in Japan is at play. Here’s why. The opposition party there is on the verge of their first major win ever (almost). They have said that they don’t want to do business with dollars and would only want to loan to the US in yen-denominated bonds. (See “Carter bonds” for an example). If the US agreed to this (and they would have to I think) then it would undermine the dollar seriously. Already we have Geithner and HIllary kowtowing again to China, no doubt working out some secret behind the scenes deal to keep $$$ flowing from there. The US is getting increasingly desperate to find over $1.5 trillion in loans this year.
Check it, the CFTC is going to reverse its Bush-era reporting on the surge in oil prices, and place the blame for the 2008 spikes on speculators:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124874574251485689.html#mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy
in case anyone is interested to read the australian prime minister’s latest ‘essay’ on the gfc … as interpreted by steve keen…my opinion: so close yet so far!
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/27/rudds-essay-is-on-the-money/
Adrian Salbuchi makes an interesting analogy:
Just as everyone thought the Twin Towers would be fine once the fires were put out, then were surprised when they fell… so everyone in the media thinks the world economic system will be OK, until it collapses.
Because in each case it’s an inside job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUvuQTD8FCI&feature=player_embedded
@All Y’all
Just saw this over at ‘boing boing’ suprised..
‘One Trillion Visualized’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at3MNu8BRwQ
http://solari.com/blog/?p=3532
Catherine Austin Fitts take on swine flu.
Changing the subject a bit, Congress and Obama are trying to impose martial law on the Internet:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-9829759-38.html?tag=nefd.top
And Obama & friends have set up a new Hitler Youth program:
http://gangbox.wordpress.com/2009/05/15/the-new-hitler-youth-the-militarization-of-the-boy-scouts-of-america/
moderate this
donut man ..
woof
copper
plated
donutz..
Amazing!
WEBBOT Cliff High and George ure on coast2coast radio 7/21/09 PT 1 http://tinyurl.com/ks3ev5
@ Max, Youri et al
I believe the author is making reference to Yasuo “Mr. Copper” Hamanaka — not the metal — in both the heading and body of the column, wherever she uses the title “Mr Copper”.
You can holster your guns now…we’ll give her the benefit of the doubt.
I need to replumb our copper underneath our house. Our well water apparently has something that is eating away at our 30 year old copper pipes, making them spring a leak.
I nearly spit up lunch when I got a price for copper tubing…
Needless to say, I’ve switched to the new P-tex plastic pipe…
Jon Stewart and Cody going toe to toe?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjA7tT9vmMw&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fdailybail%2Ecom%2Fhome%2Fcody%2Dwillard%2Dthe%2Dday%2Dour%2Dnation%2Ddied%2Dclip%2Ehtml&feature=player_embedded
Hahahhahaha
Someone has decided that $14 is a good price for Silver.
Its just a flat line.
@Max – Can you explain this in your next ‘Truth about Markets’ Please.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies accelerate: Equifax http://tinyurl.com/nngzlx
The evolution of man continues……..in the wrong direction!
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/5755642/new-taser-gun-can-shock-three-at-a-time/
Here is a recent video clip about the “high frequency guys”, the program traders on Wall Street.
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/671.html
“Liquidity is Gone”
Also can be found on Youtube
I was amazed that in it Joe Saluzzi says that tf a trader does not have at least a “50 milisecond” advantage, they are really out of the game.
Apparently in late 80s, the SEC did make these special computer programs unlawful for traders, but today there is no sign that these will be made unlawful, so essentially non-program traders ought to just drop out.
About copper, don’t forget its use in the pennies and nickels. 5-cent nickels contain 75% copper and 25% nickel. 1-cent pennies contain 2.5% copper with the remaining zinc.
Pre 1983 pennies contain 95% copper and 5% zinc and are supposedly worth more than face value. There must be some interest in these, as AMPEX is selling rolls of 1959-1982 pennies for $1.49/roll (50 pennies).
“It now costs more than a penny to make a penny. And the cost of a nickel is more than 7½ cents.
Surging prices for copper, zinc and nickel have some in Congress trying to bring back the steel-made pennies of World War II, and maybe using steel for nickels, as well.
Copper and nickel prices have tripled since 2003 and the price of zinc has quadrupled, said Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., whose subcommittee oversees the U.S. Mint… ”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24491928/
@Mike.
Hey mate. I know what your saying.
But I like to think I can grow old with dignity and actually enjoy it.
My wife said I should get my scalp looked at, but I told her the same. Its just like your sagging tits and bum – Just accept yourself and enjoy it. That went down well – Gotcha!
The more people I see trying to defy age the sadder I feel about the human race. Ha! Like those hollywood women. Look at he French, they seem to age with some grace.
I read on another site that one of the reasons copper is in short supply is due to a huge demand for bullets.
It was a trading site, so not sure of its validity
btw did you folks know that some scripts from the series “The X-Files” where given by the FBI !?
The X-Files seem to be connected with an other series “The Lone Gunmen” http://tinyurl.com/n4h8o which displayed a scenario similar to 911 which again is connected to bringing the Bilderberg Club story to the big screen, The Halcyon Company. http://tinyurl.com/n5ylep
Youri:
I’m remembering the video you posted with the mean-ass robot chasing the cool chick:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDv3RzG0jpk
Mike: 45 is still young. Some cultures do not consider you fully born until you are 49 (7×7).
@frances snoot
That catched my drift.
Here a post I made with loads of info about Robots and of cause the TERMINATOR http://tinyurl.com/cc5lhw
@Mike
But how does hiring a woman increase your hair situation ?
@Mike/Liverpool:
Vice-President Biden has spent loads on his hair transplants. Isn’t he the sexiest?
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/04/22/killer-robots-and-a-revolution-in-warfare/
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2008/10/packs-of-robots-will-hunt-down.html
Copper for robotic warfare? Not as pleasant as Juergenwahl nice entry: purely cynical.
RE: CIBC GS-Style
I have to say, I thought these guys were using the BOX for their trading…
Ever since May 12th…
Especially on the low-end of the TSX, and the VENTURE Exchange….
And sure enough,
Thanx to GS technology
going through AMERICAN servers,
they are making a profit…
Hell,
just today, I was tenuously placing a bid on a Canadian H1N1 vaccine producer that is setting-up shop in France,
and BTW, they are good… they can get a vaccine made in 1 month after receiving the DNA of the strain…
but I digress…
I placed a market bid on the last 4k shares available @ASK,
only to have it usurped by some mystery bidder,..
literally milliseconds, before my bid went through the full motions of transaction (It never takes more than 1 second)…
It was like it executed AS I PRESSED “BUY”.
Perhaps it is like the poor girl, in Poltergeist, who said,
They’re HERE!!!!
It would seem Canadian Traders (who are just trying to beat the WELFARE system !!!!) are now stepping up against the TERMINATOR
(and no, I don’t mean Arnie… he’s fly-weight compared to CIBC)
And to think I was worried about RBC…
Hell, they play the AMERICAN MARKETS
with the BIG processors!!!
I knw you guys would try to have fun with this. I got a small bale spot on the top of my head (i am 45) which is not quite covered by brushing hair.
pleanty further down my head, thus if i get micro transplants i should be able to hide it.
…………..or i just hire women instead……how much is a nice female in France these days?
Mike
@Juergenwahl
Isn’t it beyond a technical analist to pin down broader trents? Makes it sound so much like astrology…
@Kitty
I had the same thing after hearing Mrs. Burgermeister. She sounds like Mary Poppins. I’m still not clear on what is more effective, killing people using a poisonous vaccine or scaring people away from getting it. In the last case people really have noone but themselves to blame if they die.
@Mike Maybe if you get them from somone else? If two arms can be transplanted, then why not anybodies hair. Gives a whole new meaning to hairdressing…
By the way, I saw part of Mad Max (1979) and wow does it suck like a black hole…Mad Max 2009 is a hell of a lot better..
Mike don’t it… Pubes look bad when they come out of the head….
It really limits toilet comfort.
Be careful about transplanting from the ass,
@Mike
For the love of Dr Copper, don’t do it! Consider a hat, or going smooth… I’ve seen what expensive, top-of-the-line hair-plugs look like after a five years: bad, obvious, idiotic. If you want to look younger, why not botox? Anyway. Baldness is cool. Ask Larry David.
This information should not be construed as investment advice, and is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold GBP.
Old joke but given recent post about tattoos.
Have you thought about having Rabbits tattoo’d on your head?
You know from a distance they look like Hares.
Sorry, I just had to.
Just had a listen to her and a look at a long document and I found it a bit odd.
Perhaps its a play written by a medium who is in touch with Orson Welles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhGoubc2ygg
http://www.scribd.com/full/17044769?access_key=key-1or70zlm6uuy83anqjgp
On a differant subject has anyone got info on Hair transplants?
Getting a bit thin in one place, plenty else to spare thus i am thinking of “Hair re-deployment”
Mike
WHO’s heard of…
“…Journalist Accuses WHO of Plan to Commit Mass Murder CLICK FOR 6 VIDEOSAustrian investigative journalist Jane Burgermeister has filed criminal charges against the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations (UN), and several of the highest ranking government and corporate officials, charging them with bioterrorism and attempts to commit genocide.In April, she filed charges against…”
Just cut and pasted the above after searching her name which I came across just now after seeing a post on a youtube video from ‘EndlessMountain’ the Technical Analysis guy who also sees everything rotating around the Mayan calender.
First of all it’s “Dr. Copper” not “Mr. Copper”
What happened more recently is that people in the financial business keep eyes on potential buyers which now mainly is China. When these financial traders suspect deminishing stockpiles or a country ready to buy they immediately react on that.
That was the main reason why China stopped buying cause prices kept on rising on money put in which didn’t know where to go else and as such create earnings over China’s back.
This manipulation is everywhere now I quess like in oil for example.
Q: “Why has copper price soared during the worst recession since the Great Depression?”
A: Most likely because its price rise is signalling a nascent economic recovery.
Copper is purchased, not for hoarding, but for use in manufacture of circuit boards; electrical wire; electromagnets; heat sinks; integrated circuits; magnetrons; microwave wave guides; motors, generators, and transformers; piping; plumbing; relays and switches; roofing; etc. Copper has oft been referred to as “Dr. Copper” because its increased usage is one of the best leading indicators of reviving economic activity after a slump – and also the converse.
The first sign of an upwards change of trend in this commodity occurred in 08Dec when the price went no lower than 125.50, approaching a Gann square of nine, 180 degree support point at 125.42, ((@Sqrt(408.00) – 9))^2 = 125.42.
The second sign of a trend reversal occurred in late 09Feb, when intermediate-term resistance in the 160s was overcome by a sharp, persistent rally.
Important resistance points, representing downtrend retracements, will be 233.42 (38.2%); 266.75 (50.0%); 300.09 (61.8%); and 347.55 (78.6%).
Please see:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98770211380
On a longer term basis, since long-term tops, once bypassed, tend to provide support, the late year swoon of this metal in 2008 stopped roughly at the prior tops recorded in 1974, 1980, 1987-90, 1995, and 2004. {Please note the scaling is different on the following chart, because it is a continuous recording of the immediate contract on a rolling basis.]
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/hg.pdf
(The high of this chart, 427.00, also failed to penetrate a square of nine, 180 degree resistance point at 430.40, ((@Sqrt(60) + 13))^2 = 430.40.)
While the “Worst Depression Ever” may be moderating, it still does not equate to rosier times ahead. Keynes proved that an economy can stabilise for long periods at various levels of activity – from optimal to suboptimal. Since neither the US nor UK are left with anything representing a vibrant industrial base to kick things moving, I will bet on the suboptimal.
Further, as regards to copper:
A young girl with hair tone of copper
Had girth that was really a whopper.
She had quite a spill,
And rolled down the hill
With a speed at which no one could stop her!
RESISTING CARRY TRADES
- The interest in carry trades has grown as investors have become more willing to venture out of the most liquid markets in the quest for returns but the subsequent appreciation in currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar is provoking a push back from the central banks concerned.
This suggests that others could be, or have been, tempted by tactics deployed by the Swiss National Bank, whose latest reserves data shows how actively it has sought to keep the Swiss franc in check.
Australian reserve data suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia is already taking a leaf out of the SNB’s books, which will keep the market on toes in the coming weeks, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting this week will offer another chance for central bank rhetoric to counter the prevailing market trend.
FROM: The Big Five: themes for the week ahead
http://link.reuters.com/nem49c
About rigged markets, how global is that problem? I assume some manipulation is going on everywhere but is there known places/countries that are worse or better than others?
Hmm, do not enter the market you say, and at home in a newspaper today I got a fund manager saying stocks is THE place to be right now (I guess he wants more people to buy into his fond right now, that is the underlying tone of the advertisement..em article) … I am glad you, max and the gang are there trying to educate and knock some sense into people like myself.
Representatives charge Goldman with using taxpayer money to put the financial system at further risk:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/27/goldman-sachs-gambling-wi_n_245566.html
Look at whose picture (and blogs) appear at the bottom of the page. Go, Max!
Some hope is glowing. People have been to the streets. In 2008 already!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4TNaJDTFcw&hl=nl
Also great news: British government swineflu advisor also works for Glaxo.
http://tinyurl.com/l7x4s9
Nice: Monsanto lobbyist to become head of food security for the US government!
http://deepjournal.nl/p/7/a/en/2163.html
HAH!!!!
Finally, someone has written an article about CIBC and the High-Frequency COMPUTER trading they’ve been doing…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cibc-surges-ahead-on-electronic-trading-strategy/article1231784/
One interesting point of contrast between the high-freq models of the TSX and NYSE is that Canadian Markets don’t allow FLASH MESSAGING (which essentially is front-running…)
but apparently CIBC trades 1 in 5 shares … (there are retail investors in the those numbers, though)
i save copper and take it in for scrap. been waiting awhile now to take it in. couple 55 gallon drums full should bring a dollar or two. pg
Sorry guys, I’m too lazy to find an English notice, but here is a dutch news paper article stating that Europe is to negotiate with the US on providing them details on bank accounts.
Very nice.
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/4488905/__D66_boos_over_toegang_bankgegevens__.html?p=14,1
Did you guys remember this?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/01/29/eveningnews/main325985.shtml
Hence the WT7 comment of Max on the Paris tv show regarding the Goldman shysters.
I would say its simply because investors are using copper as “money” as not for its industrial use, hence why copper has soared. Silver is also an industrial metal which is “defying gravity” once again because its being used as money and not industrial.
Privy investors are taking up the advice that they need to hold real assets so they buy cotton sugar copper silver etc but they are buying to hold using their ETF’s but the ETF doesnt refelct the real world these commodity’s are designed to flow not be stored which will clearly cause a problem soon.
2-Year 100.172 1.03
10-Year 95.156 3.72
30-Year 94.016 4.62
Treasury yields are exploding.
Maybe the aliens need blood transfusions?
http://www.davidicke.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57993
Maybe people mistake copper for gold..
@Max
What do you expect from this direct US-China summit ?
Yea, it’s Dr. Copper not Mr. Copper
Personally I’m not too fond of coppers.
Here is some fun on the swineflu!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202389/Government-virus-expert-paid-116k-Tamiflu-vaccine-makers.html
I thought it was Dr. Copper?!
More succinctly, why did copper price bottom-out for the past two years?