Stacy Summary:  Same time as last summer, the next wave down begins.  Recall we saw some of the most dramatic stock market tumbles in Shanghai where the ride down began, and I think we will see sharp gyrations for next few days, perhaps next two weeks.  Then get ready for September / October.   Hang on for dear life.  I suspect you’ll see similar behavior – stocks will tank, commodities will get whacked and dollar will rise (temporarily) as foreign investors continue to try to get out of their US dollar denominated derivative positions.  The other thing that will remain constant is that the banking oligarchs will receive billions upon billions due to record ‘profits’ from the taxpayers.  My bet is also that European banks will take it this time as this second wave kicks the legs out from under Eastern Europe.  (Where are you placing your bets?)

• Shanghai slumps 5.8%

• Buckle up! (h/t @lau)

• Brace yourself for next wave of foreclosures

• Alliance & Leicester down nearly 8%; HBOS down 13.5%

• Is this the start of the big one?

Lack of political leadership. The health care fiasco is going to be a defining event for Obama, in a negative way. His inability to respond effectively to simply absurd distortions of his plan and of the record of public supported programs overseas (including that many are government funded but still privately run, for instance) may dispel the illusion that he is or can be an effective leader. His banking policy, which is vital to recovery, became hostage to Geithner and Summer’s deep loyalty to the industry, and his lack or interest in rocking any boats. All Team Obama has done on the banking front is write a lot of blank check, hold some bogus “stress tests” in lieu of doing the real thing, and raise a stink on a few symbolic issues to try to paper over the failure to embark on real and badly needed reforms.