China’s Liu says U.S. Rates Cause Dollar Speculation

November 15th, 2009 by stacyherbert

Stacy Summary:  And,  you may remember from Money Geyser, where the carry trade leads . . .

“The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication, that in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,” he told reporters in Beijing today at the International Finance Forum.

Liu said this has “seriously affected global asset prices, fuelled speculation in stock and property markets, and created new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging-market economies.”

Tags: 11 Comments

11 responses so far ↓

  • GOLD…Do We Finally Have Your Attention?

    Andy Sutton
    November 13, 2009

    …. Gordon Brown, then England’s Chancellor of the Exchequer made the extremely wise decision to sell a good chunk of Mother England’s Gold (395 tonnes) in the $275-$300/oz area. The people were so enthralled by this obvious economic genius that they made him the Prime Minister. ….

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/sutton111309.html

    Good graph which shows the rise in Gold since 2000 and the CB activity in trying to hold it down + until they capitulate !

  • “The carry trades will further drive down the dollar’s value and fuel commodity prices,” Zhao said. “The dollar’s depreciation has also caused excessive liquidity in the global market.”

    I’m confused. Didn’t the IMF say that the dollar is currently over-valued because of the carry trade? Does Zhao mean that once the trades unwind, they will drive down the dollar’s value?

  • In other news -

    The Reserve Bank of India said the purchase was an official sector off-market transaction. The transaction, which is being settled now, involved daily sales, phased over a two-week period during October 19-30, with each daily sale conducted at a price set on the basis of market prices prevailing that day.

    The Reserve Bank of India may buy more gold from the International Monetary Fund if it offers to sell the precious metal, a senior finance ministry official said.

  • @Phil:
    It’s all a matter of perspective. The rise in gold also correlates with the introduction of the Euro as a trading currency and the rise of the gold etf market.

  • “There have been many people such as Jim Sinclair working hard in the trenches to educate people on the merits of taking delivery and fighting the cartel by taking their playing chips off the table. Gold in your possession cannot be leased out by a central bank to various third parties, nor can it have futures contracts written against it.”

    How much value would gold have as a barter item if the dollar/fiat fractional reserve system goes kerplunk? How is the IMF supporting gold price through their interest rate payment to “help” poor countries/sdr gold swaps/bond transfer for treasuries program? What will men price gold value in if the dollar collapses as a currency as in the perfomance of the krona in Iceland?

    How is Jim Sinclair, a gold saleman, fighting in the trenches? Since when did the pursuit of personal gain mean also contribution to being a ‘good guy’?

    Why is the assumption made that physical gold support is a blow to the central bank cartel system? PHYSICAL GOLD BARTER NOW WOULD BE THE BLOW.

    If we are at peak lethargy, as MotherEarth indicates, them my view is that the lethargy is a construct of the willingness of men to be duped by genocidal maniacs and their minions. Float downstream to gold glory! Right?

  • Selling physical gold for ‘altruistic reasons’ is a con.

  • Fed Pledges to Keep Rates Low for ‘Extended Period’ http://tinyurl.com/yjsqhcd

    `No hints, winks, nods from Fed about rate hikes http://tinyurl.com/yfbe5rr

    U.S. Fed May Raise Rates in September, Survey Shows http://tinyurl.com/yzjgmcs

  • If the Yen carry trade lasted 20 years and took one year to unwind then how can a 10 month carry trade in the $$ cause the same result as 08 ?

    I agree with Schiff, the carry trade is overrated

  • ================
    If the Yen carry trade lasted 20 years and took one year to unwind then how can a 10 month carry trade in the $$ cause the same result as 08?

    I agree with Schiff, the carry trade is overrated
    ================

    Carry trades as a common practice or method cannot take place unless certain boundary conditions are met:

    Long, Medium and Short Term interest rates are involved

    When (TRUE) for Time = 3 months
    {

    While
    {
    2.1% < interest-rate-ideal-duration
    then
    carry-trade-borrow = TRUE
    else
    carry-trade-borrow = FALSE
    }

    }

    When (FALSE) call Currency_Search_Carry_Trade()

    Note that Wiki does not have a fill section on this, nor its boundary conditions…

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_trade#Currency

  • I did not cover a lot of the FOREX and Uncovered interest rate parity issues involved with successful use of the Carry Trade.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate_parity#Uncovered_interest_rate_parity

    There is a boundary condition that was proven by Iceland on the limits on the size of the economy that permit carry trades.

    Iceland is too small.
    NZ is for all practical purposes too small.
    Australia and Canada are at the edge of minimum size limit.

    Japan / USA / India … are big enough to cope with some levels of policed Carry Trade activity, but developing nations — and clearly the Commonwealth — should ban this kind of trade due to its destructive effects.

    Japan for decades had unpoliced carry trade activity, and this will not help it recover economically.

  • I suggest you add this playlist to your headlines:

    Section 8 is Socialist Land Reform – Economic Collapse in America – Victorville CA Part 1…7

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l73kNWsovPw&feature=PlayList&p=261F40A3C9EEAD92&index=0&playnext=1