Stacy Summary: Good afternoon! Your thoughts on China? Crash? No crash?
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Rick Ackerman-
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- Mish
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crash banksters – Buy Silver & gold
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Most recent: 
As for “reductions” first have the west completely de-industrialize in third world nation status, and then let them talk about “reductions”. When the west polluted while they were industrializing it was alright as it was only white man’s burden to do so. They are not coming from an even playing field. It is the same old imperialism, keep the third world (naturally non-whites) so that that the white man will be able to reign on planet earth and fulfill his burden until he dies out of course. Many corrupt third world leaders are going along with same program due to graft, regardless of the best interests of their people.
A weakened China is not happening any time soon. As for India LOL you have to be kidding me. India cannot even deal with China’s puppet state of pakistan. India is not a major world power at all.
No not some chinese, most chinese are living far better than how they had before. China was not even industrialized at all, until deng xaiopeng’s reforms. It was the definition of third world. During the 90s and this decade china has built up a lot more infrastructure and facilities to even make it more industrial. The purchasing power of the yuan will increase once the yuan is allowed to float, China doesn’t necessarily need the US. China is buying worthless treasuries now so that they can obtain the technology and expertise from the US to better improve their products. What is the US getting out of the relationship? Nothing. In fact the US standard of living has decreased dramatically in real terms, only to be subsidized by a ponzi credit bubble.
As for “human rights”, well until westerners give repatriations to the the native americans and reparations to the blacks they have no business in talking about “human rights” Not to mention all of their imperialistic activities around the world.
It is not just the horn of africa, there are also other parts in the south that china is building up in addition to se asia. Tribal groups can be controlled, the western imperialists pre-ww2 proved this. Of course post-ww2 the new westerern imperialists under america’s command proved to be incompetent naturally. All americans know about imperialism is genociding the native peoples and enslaving blacks, much less knowing about how to actually control far-away populations and keep them appeased in order to use them in a geopolitical strategic game.
As for war with china, a direct nuclear war is not going to happen. Do you think obama or gates is going to risk the nuclear annihilation of at least populated areas in california and new york? I’m sorry to tell you, but the pentagon is not that competent. They cannot even control iraq or afghanistan. They couldn’t defeat vietnam, korea and now pakistan. Sure they have better technology for now, but that technology is scattered across the globe, underused and there is also much lower troop morale for the US. If the us could not even win mere proxy wars with china, it can’t be expected to win a direct war.
As for russia, well russia has their own agenda right now they are only working with the west. They know who is in charge. Which nation has the world reserve currency again? The US. Putin is ex-kgb they have had long term goals for non-western supremacy in the world. In fact if russia were to get involved at a time when the US was fighting a civil war against its own citizens and a pacific war in china it would give them just the distraction to take out the US once and for all. China wants the asia-pacifc rim, oceania and south asia. Russia wants Europe, Central Asia and much of the middle east. These have been longterm goals for Russia. Anyway China doesn’t even need Russia for national defense, it can handle itself.
As for gordon chang and his followers, they are more likely to see civil war in the US first after the dollar collapses. Do you think that Joe Schmo is going to enjoy not being able to afford his xbox or his flat screen tv anymore? No. The dollar is what gives the defense department its outrageous spending capacity. Once the dollar goes, so goes the spending. Americans have been proven to be terribly inefficient in any kind of spending post-1971 after the abandoned the american system of economics and replaced it with the chicago school/montearist/keynesian unproductive chimera. Both the Chinese and the russians have done more with a lot less funding. The US cannot even handle insurgents in iraq.
Looks like the idiocy in the Mideast is escalating.
Now, a story appears on Al Jazeera English service that Iraq has sent a military force to the area near a disputed oil well.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/12/20091219214812646131.html
Iraqi authorities sent army and police forces to a staging ground about 1km from the well in the Fauqa oil field in southern Maysan province on Saturday, The Associated Press news agency reported, citing officials.
The diplomacy was that China needed to offer ‘leadership’ in declaring its reductions completely transparent. And it wouldn’t because it plainly couldn’t. I don’t doubt it wishes it could, but the fact is there is so much corruption in its local arms of government, sustained revelations there would mean a massive embarrassment.
SOME Chinese are living far beyond what they could have imagined 20 years ago – Many many more have lost homes, livelihoods and land in outrageous state-sanctioned swindles. Not to mention access to education and health care under elitist privatization, savage oppression. But hey, let’s sweep all that provincial stuff under the carpet, right? Let’s all dream the idiocy of Yankee mall culture. Want to know why that labour force is so cheap and flexible? Take a look at what the rural peasant has left! They live in not more than sheds with dirt floors and no sewerage or running water! There are slaves conditions! What choice do they have, when even their livelihood is robbed them through massive pollution, corrupt marketeering? Yeah it’s great being an unskilled labourer with no prospect of saving anything or promotion, unreliable wages and far far from home. They get parcelled off to live in barracks on building sites, or sent to the new lebensraums of Tibet or Uigher-land with their deeply racist policies and naked exploitation. Oppressing someone else is supposed to make them feel less oppressed I guess. But let’s not stray too far from the brand new freeways and skyscrapers of the Mandarin wonderland, it could get nasty. It does get nasty.
I’m not defending Amerika. Amerika is indefensible.
But China’s supposed ‘free’ trade economy, is anything but free, much more than an economy. And it’s not just émigrés that are disillusioned. Amnesty International and similar international monitoring groups have been predicting social breakdown for some time. The gap between the haves and have-nots is just too stark, maintained with too injustice. There’s a reason these people throw themselves into airless containers in the hope of a niche in the sweatshops of backstreet USA. It looks good given their other options. Everyone back home is thrilled to see them leave.
As for the horn of Africa proving the new foodbowl for a Greater China – ah-ha ha ha – sorry – any idea what the geography of that part of the world is like? At best it supports very low density grazing. It’s about as fertile as Arizona. And since China has chosen to support and encourage tribal warfare, not to say genocide and tyranny there, it’s not about to turn into a rice paddy heaven anytime soon. See those kind of divisions run real deep, one tribe leads to another. Sudan is a basket case, and sooner or later its oil trump card will be threatened.
True, China cannot dump its US holdings without hurting itself, although as others have hinted on this thread, China’s been steadily diversifying – mainly into real estate and overseas industry – and pretty soon now it will want to call the tune. Whether Amerika is ready to dance will be mighty interesting. Everyone noticed Obama’s ‘deference’ on his recent visit. That’s being tactful. But Amerika these days is pretty much just a war economy – the industrial-military complex is all they have left – so you can bet it will be used judiciously. The war will not be anything reckless or conspicuous to start with. But it will be war, even if thought of as just the economy continued by other means. Allies are like trading partners, they’re always looking for advantage. I wouldn’t bet on Russia’s loyalties when its market share in Europe is looking so good. A weakened or divided China would suit everyone, especially India.
China was a scapegoat in coppenhagen nothing more. That conference was only set up to keep the third world from industrializing. It was western post-imperialism. China was already treated unfairly at the table from the start. First of course they had to deal with the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world the US naturally. Not only that, but they also had to hear the same washington driven consensus brabble from other NATO nations and then of course nato satellite states like Japan and SK. It gets very dull. What is most ironic is that China is financing America’s ability to extend it’s reach into NATO. If it wasn’t for the US dollar being kept alive by China the US wouldn’t be able to afford all of it’s military/political/economic shenanigans that it uses outside it’s borders, unbeknownst to msnbc/cnn/fox watching shallow provincial americans.
China’s consumption is suppressed due to the yuan being suppressed. It can come after a revaluation later on. Of course after the dollar collapses. The chinese in china are living far behind what they could have imagined even 20 years ago. Of course there is always the wishful thinking from the likes of self-hating chinese americans like Gordon Chang who has been predicting a collapse of china in 2006. On the basis of “freedom” and “democracy”, that is why there must be social unrest LOL. “Freedom” and “Democracy” sure did a lot for the Africans and Native Americans, didn’t it? Where is China going to obtain agricultural products and food? Well it has been making long-term deals with East African nations. For those who complain about the sudanese, they just look at western corporatist greedy leaders running many third world nations especially in africa and latin america today. As for forcefeeding consumption LOL, the US should try to do that once the currency collapses. That is if americans will be able to afford much at all.
As for war, are you joking? Do you think that pacified euros are going to risk a war with china or even russia? NO way. Remember China and Russia are long term military allies against the West. By the way the Chinese can dump their FX holdings if they wanted to start turmoil in the US. LOL the US is too weak to take on China strategically that is. Although, most likely the dollar will fall apart without chinese assistance. Presumably a panic starting elsewhere. Anywhere, the US government might end up having to deal with its own citizens. It wouldn’t have time for a war with China . If it decided to start a war anyway, it wouldn’t gain anything due to over reach already clearly present in the US empire, if anything the empire would come down quicker due to internal social unrest inside of it. Remember the US couldn’t even win a war with the Chinese proxies of North Korea, Vietnam and now even Pakistan. Even mao’s hellhole army was able to fend off the US in the 50s.
@ China’s crash scenario:
I’ve been hearing this for a few years now – that in all sorts of ways, China is a bubble ready to burst. Economically, politically, socially. The real figures on unemployment, displacement due to land swindles, political prisoners and rioting is concealed. How far can they continue to stockpile raw materials (imports), manufactured goods (‘exports’) – in the hope that domestic demand will take up the slack? It’s a dream. They’ve poured money into a property bubble but that’s meaningless unless their GDP gets real, and that’s not going to happen while they stifle wages, try and forcefeed consumption.
The bullshit will only run so far.
Is China the new consumerist engine that will kick-start the global capitalist conceit ‘one mo time’? Even with 100 million billionaires that still leaves 800 million slaves, and that curve just isn’t going to smooth out fast enough.
China can destroy its agricultural sector in the hope that massive industrialization = exports will mean it can buy food out of the mouths of the rest of the world – but where the fuck do they think the rest of the world is going to find the land to cultivate all that extra food? Ecologically, economically, it’s a nonsense heading to catastrophe.
Their economic model unfortunately has been the US – but the starkest illustration to be drawn from there is its unsustainability – its corruption and imperialist instinct. China’s ‘growth’ has been sensational – so are cancers. Interestingly, I hear coming out of Copenhagen, people blaming China for the failure to reach a realistic timetable to save the world climate. This sounds to me like a great pretext for a war against everyone’s favourite competitor.
Ordos, Mongolia?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk
WTF?
Crash Boom Bang!
Not necessarily a bad thing BTW
Pickles
The winter set in hard cold
Left shriveled remnants of summer
Lastly
The pumpkin vine’s green waxed paper
Lines the garden with a graying trace
Of promise
My but the work
Set cumbered days to right
For on the shelf gleam
Severed summer memories
Glancing gold
Dancing light and darkness
Wizened vinegar glance
Peers at one
Piercing the casting
Set to reflect
Those eyes
Those lonely windows
Now upon empty rooms
Give notice
Rock me safe
In my wooden chair
Upon the deck plaits
Braided sound
Back and forth
Silver song sings
Better this way
Better dead
Better this way
Better better better
No, I couldn’t
Really explain
Why
Mish is trying to make a nonsense point again. He is just as wrong as he has been in every prediction in every article he has made. He has none of the nderstanding of Denninger. He his just Ego, trying to put down other peoples thesises. Why do he mention a load of copper as a problem, but not a load of worthless paper. Nonsense. Copper is nice to have into the future. Paper is not useful at all.
Good night.
I like how mish refers to potential unemployment and unrest in China. LOL he needs to look to the future of his own country first.
China has built empty cities before and they have inevitability been filled up, this is nothing new. China is urbanizing rapidly. China has also been investing in alternative energies greatly and strategic military goals. Much more efficient than the pentagon’s free money to the defense contractors with the largest lobbies strategy, regardless of long term strategic military goals.
As for domestic demand and the hoarding of commodities, china is doing this now while their dollars are actually worth something. Domestic demand will only come after a yuan revaluation. In a few years Ben’s green toilet paper is not going to mean anything.
Guess what else mish if china collapses, where will it get the funds to fight against the so-called coming of social unrest?
BY SELLING US TREASURIES hence INFLATION for the US. Say goodbye to your dollars mish.
@namarama
Good Lord, own the physical gold. Paper is paper and can be manipulated on a computer screen.
Gold bullion coin. Numismatic coines have that “window” of value based on rarity or grading ….. in normal circumstances a portion of investment to have, but now? Bullion coin.
There’s my 2 cents worth OF GOLD, OF COURSE!
Oh Yeah.
Crash Boom Bang!
Not necessarily a bad thing BTW.
The current system is rotten and needs change. So lets change it.
Short term pain for longer term gain.
Shame it had to get like this but as you say to your children, there are two ways to learn. Watch or do.
We did….and fucked it up.
China Property Prices will inflate because CHY is linked to the USD.
The Price of a Chinese Apartment priced in Gold is not inflating.
@ GGees Spot on. Was contimplating handing back the keys before i slip into negitive equity and then renting. That quote has sealed it for me. @y’all, took delivery of my first kruggerand today. After finding this blog I am convinced there is no alternitive to solid tangebles. Should I sell my ETF gold and buy more metal. bonn… phil germany…..frances… Anybody? Yors Working poor.
BTW, wasn’t your president a Harvard graduate? Hmm!? Scary, isn’t it?
Well, these bets made by Harvard pretty much tell what their education is worth. Where were these “professors” of economics when the bets were made? Didn’t they see the problem? Oh. How sad. Well, they did not see it coming how come the whole country watches these dorks on TV and believes even a single word they say?
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The dollar is the most fundamental of all markets.
Now that the techs have put on the short squeeze, let’s see what legs fundamental factors have to offer for the many so far voracious but oral bulls.
The Dark Gray Swan: No More Foreign Dollars With Which To Buy US Treasuries
Tyler Durden on 12/17/2009 21:31 -0500
Could the next black/green/dark gray swan be so obvious that it has avoided everyone? Well, except for the deputy governor of the Bank of China, who just gave the world a startling reminder of economics 101, when he said that it is “getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing the supply of dollars overseas.” Oops.
The funny thing about natural (and economic) systems: they can only be pushed so far before they snap back to default state. With the entire world embarking on an unprecedented spree of domestic bubble blowing to mask the collapse in global GDP, everyone forgot to trade. Zero Hedge has long emphasized that the drop in world trade can only sustain for so long before it brings the current destabilized system back to some form of equilibrium. Because with every country intent on merely printing more of its own currency, whether it is to build bridges or to make the stock of electronic book fads trade at 100x earnings, said countries ran out of non-domestic cash. Alas, this is most critical for the United States, now that Treasury monetization is over, as the US needs to constantly find foreign buyers of its debt to fund unsustainable deficits. Foreign buyers who have US dollars. And according to Shanghai Daily, this could be a big, big problem.
Here is what the BOC’s Zhu Min said earlier:
“The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries,” Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. “Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible.”
More…
posted at jsmineset article from zerohedge.
Brrr!
Heavy snow causes travel chaos in parts of England
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8420057.stm?ls
Any i dunno what to call it now “Global Warming” “Climate change” Max u were an ardent fan of tis I Bonn have a couple of questions ta u n stacey
Hmmmm i just farted did or does that come under Methane emmissions ?
How much do I Owe ya now
Or u gonna place a camera on me ass
Cap n trade “really ?”
@naomi – words, definitions
The depressed price of houses in the US is due to a saturated market and the shake-out of debt, which isn’t over yet. But as far as I can see, we’re already in a depression with unemployment over 20%, and an eventual inflation perhaps even a hyper-inflation.
Classic that the most prominent anti-warmist is a British lord. They do cover all their bases.
That aside, this article shows us the shape of things to come:
http://sppiblog.org/news/is-the-european-police-state-going-global
@will,
Then it’s deflation which will be a Depression. Deflating land prices, housing, but I don’t see a deflation of prices of commodities though. Am I correct?
@ ya’ll
Ya anal ‘yze Too much LOL RODFL
Get safe get real get otta Gold get into something peeps actually use Food,Clothing & Housing,
Personally Housing can be divided easiest of the 3
Gold comes under clothing.
Or a Mc. Laren F1 hood
LOLOLOLOL
RODFL PMSL
Hic
FWIW
I’ve uploaded my long term GLD chart here :
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/204/gld001.jpg
…. with my trading range lines drawn.
Notice the biggest RED volume of nearly 80 million was the take down !
Support within range being tested right now.
Also TODAY is GLD Options Expirey day …. what a coincidence !
Monday’s move will tell us whether it holds support.
So far .. green volume today !
@Will … Benno Inflatio
Yes, there is ONLY inflation, no matter what they call it !
@naomi – Benny inflates or deflates.
Ben has already done inflated, and no matter how hard they brick him, he won’t be able to suck the “excess liquidity” out of the system. Inflation bails out debtors (which the US is). I just watch what they do rather than what they say. That’s my 2¢.
They use Up down approach
We should use the opp. down up approach
Its just 5 CD’s
3 Dollars ROFL PMSL
Hic
USA aint dead and gone
there is the Question of Debt
But they do have peeps who want work
the Debt may just be written off Just like the R&D Dept of a Co.
I think thats gonna be the case
They’ll File for Branctruptsy
@Will,
So, Bernanke is going to do…….deflation, inflation a mixture of both?
@Will…Thanks..I learn a great deal from that site.
What up what up 4 larges down oooooooooohh I love Whyisky
China ohh u cant belive em stacey ya dont know what they up to
I guess this is considered very patriotic in Washington?
The defense bill is always the worst and most morally reprehensible, and this year is no exception. It should be noted that defense pork is one of America’s great bipartisan traditions. The scheme is the same every year, regardless of who is in the majority: Congress quietly shoves in earmarks for unnecessary and ridiculously expensive weapons programs, and pays for them by gutting the existing budgets for actual soldiers.
http://tinyurl.com/yksh7nz
@Dante – thanks for the Dean LeBaron link.
This one is pretty telling as well: http://www.deanlebaron.com/misc/macwilliams_china.html
Do you eat lead?
Thursday – December 17
Ungovernability in the US
http://www.deanlebaron.com/index.html
Watchdog probes firms’ trading tips: sources
JPM, GS, & MS
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Watchdog-probes-firms-trading-rb-2514521620.html?x=0&.v=1
LOL … only 30 years too late as usual !
PS: not that they’ll find or do anything anyway IMO !
Basic Math Questions:
Where will Gold be when the US Dollar is at 70-basis points?
In the event of a financial ‘collapse,’ how much food will a US $20 Gold-piece buy on the South Side of Chicago?
Finally, for bonus points; Those with a little nest-egg are asking, where then is the safest place to put Ma & Pa’s money?
…it’s a jungle out there!
Look at how the cowards who kowtow to the banking industry use the bush/cheney strategy line on patriotism…friggin deplorable…every time you question these mutts they try to put you on defensive. She has the knowledge base to clean up the garbage.
”
Janet Tavakoli Writes In
Credit derivatives have been criticized for information asymmetry, so why not criticize how these committees operate? I am happy to publicly state that they are rigged.
http://tinyurl.com/y8whpvx
50 Ways To Leave Your Mortgage
“The problem is all inside your head”, she said to me
The answer is easy if you take it logically
I’d like to help you in your struggle to be free
There must be fifty ways to leave your mortgage
Make a new loan Joan
Pick up the cash Nash
Hop on a plane Shane
and set yourself free
@Fibion11235:
Excuse the musings of an economic neophyte.
The mandates coming out of Basel have a schedule: the worldwide adherence to Basel pillar 2 is set for January 2010. The scenerios playing are directed by the same regulatory overlords.
But I think the Americans should be commended in their abject naive stupidity and ignorance of the workings of the Bretton Woods/ post gold standard international financial system. That system, as Soros has indicated, is moribund. Americans are destroying their own economic capacity and currency. Can you believe that Ron Paul would indicated that any currency locally created and outside of the G20 trade hegemony could possibly compete with that conglomerate? We don’t even have an industrial base. Perhaps Paul knows something of The Plan? Or is he really fundamentally institutionally stupid?
Off topic, but I just loved this clip:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2009/12/9_King_World_News__Special_Pre-Release_Interview.html
Buy your own Satellite Py kit for only 26$
LOL !
Insurgents hacking drones with $26 software
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZEccrmrRbs&feature=sub
@frances snoot
“Capital is being controlled through the same agency worldwide.”
Is this true the US China, Russia all have the same money master, do you know this or is it a guess?
I give you, that the patterns look very similar?
@Stacey:
I find it telling that Mish can create that entire expostulation whilst ignoring the affect of the Basel pillar 2 mandates (Basel committee, FSB, BIS) being forwarded through the agency of the CBRC. Pig farmers and copper? The idea that those agents drive an economy is ludicrous.
The capital directives will drive asset preference for investment through risk management directives as mitigated through the tiered system. Capital is being controlled through the same agency worldwide.
so much fancy finance, so little time. What all this junk has in common is the hubris and sociopathic nature of the initiators.
You will never get a mea culpa from Summers or Greenspan or any of these morons. They are poseurs. They are posing as geniuses when in fact they are quite stupid and endlessly arrogant.
Their true adolescent nature would emerge if you lined them up for a waterboarding session. By the time you put the blindfolds on they would all be bawling and wailing like preschool children, their confessions coming fast and easy. Their entire game was to couch ponzi schemes in obtuse language that would either confuse,befuddle or put to sleep anyone on the other end. They are cheap predators and must be identified as such. Conmen who use pseudo intellectual arguments to distract their prey while they steal from them.
lol jamie !!! wtf is that guy doing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that harvard note is astonishing, and just so slap-you-in-the-face-with-a-stinking-smelly-trout …. utterly remarkable this little points here and there .,
LOL! When I first when to read that Bloomberg article, I read it as “Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Anne Phillips Ogilby, a blond attorney at one of Boston’s oldest law firms, on Oct. 3..”
But – as we all know – not all blonds are dumb, right Stacy?
Crash in inivitable to all of us IMO. Its just China has been buying in bulk things like copper, steel, gold and other commodities to try and survive the collapse.
Oh man, I better buy up some plastic Chinese crap before they go under.
Copenhagen climate summit: ‘most important paper in the world’ is a glorified UN press release
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100020279/copenhagen-climate-summit-most-important-paper-in-the-world-is-a-glorified-un-press-release/
unfortunately it seems likely to my mind that just like with the senate and tarp the masses will prevail in the first instance only to be decapitated in teh second
…another credit-default swap bomb packed full of worthless derivatives blows up an Ivy-league school…
and yet Larry Summers advises Obama to continue the fraud of worthless derivatives and credit-default swaps.
How STUPID is that?