Stacy Summary: ‘Arson?’ Or, ‘simple hedge?’ We’ll be asking Janet Tavakoli this on the Keiser Report in the New Year. In the meantime, your thoughts . . .
Update: (Janet Tavakoli just emailed this in response to the above article)
From her website:
Goldman Sachs recently acknowledged that I warned (using fact based analysis) about these grave risks at the time it manufactured value-destroying CDOs, but it said my opinion was in the “minority.” Goldman would have you believe it the financial equivalent of a member of the Flat Earth Society in the lifetime of Galileo Galilei. Just as a competent long-distance navigator does not care how many nonprofessionals are members of the flat earth society, one does not rely on whether an opinion is in the minority or majority as a basis for performing appropriate due diligence when underwriting a securitization. A reasonable man expects a long-distance navigator to have some competence in his craft, and a reasonable man can expect a certain level of competence (and standards) from underwriters. A basic investigation of the underlying collateral revealed grave risks–not reflected by the ratings–compounded by suspect securitization practices. Public money was used to bailout AIG in an extraordinary crisis, and the general public are not sophisticated investors. The argument that AIG was a sophisticated investor no longer applies as a reason to avoid consequences of this behavior.
Tags: betting against · cdos · goldman · shorting131 Comments
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nucknuck.
bye ya’ll
GATA Sues Fed, Demands Disclosure Of Gold Market Intervention Records
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gata-sues-fed-demands-disclosure-gold-market-intervention-records
Welcome to Orwell’s World by John Pilger
http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2010/01/afghanistan-war-pilger-obama
Morning Phil
Er its like 1.07 Am here in Liverpool……….
Off to Bed, but i post you GATA link before i go.
Cheers
Mike
@norcalkid
Bout Baltic (BDI), Look at the numbers in this interesting PDF http://www.mol.co.jp/research-e/info/dry_bulk.pdf
Better graphs: http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Almost 70% China Ore Bulk makes clear who’s giving the spikes in demand and oil is the big factor in freight rates as usual.
Question is where the next Baltic Dry bottom will be and do we be keep bouncing along the bottom or do we realy get a postive uptick spike next time?
But whatever the economical trend reflected by the BDI. it’s not in the U.S. but mainly in Asia unfortunately.
@Mike … 2.07 Am here in Germany
BTW … after that GATA lawsuit, expect Gold to get hammered now.
It’s always the same, as soon as a report comes out to hurt WS buddies, they all gang up !
Interesting BDI Graph http://www.wikinvest.com/index/Baltic_Dry_Index_-_BDI_%28BALDRY%29/WikiChart
@Phil
Good Luck to GATA
as a poster on ZH noted, Bloomberg’s case is going nowhere…
The Federal Bank of Bernanke is untouchable…
Kind of like Goldmung Sucks…
BTW thanx for the “fishing line” info…
although, I am now curious as to how the Rockefeller’s invented Technicals…
Got Links ???
@norcalkid
Interesting thing bout the CNBC Vid is that the other bloke is talking outof his little neck hairs when he says there’s no inflation cause the whole FIAT system is based on 2,5% (optimal) inflation concurred with the steady but gradual increasing money supply through means of Printing Press.
The bloke maybe counts on the fact being stupid not knowing this with is small talk. Inflation numbers is tempered with and gold is being manipulated cause should be on $1.500 right now and one simply can’t push Gold back into the Lease wonder-lamp forever it has to come out eventually to grant you golden honest wishes.
CNBC Squawk Box Europe interview with Egon von Greyerz, December 22, 2009 Vid http://tinyurl.com/yd2ar2j
Nothing moves up in straight line. Gold should resume its upward trend after it has consolidated at around $1000/oz. But how a car rental company (Dollar Thrifty) sees a 2600% rise in its share price in less than a year is beyond me. This can’t be sustainable. Max, what do you reckon mate?
Street-Level summary of how Goldmung Sucks operates
I sell drugs to someone and make a profit…
Then I call Crimestoppers to tell the pigs that this jojo is dealing, and they bust him…
I get money from the cops for the TIP
That’s right…
I made money on both ends by creating the crime and turning it in…
Another successful false-flag operation…
If that’s how Goldmung Sucks operates,
then Blankfein should be sent to China with 4kgs of Heroin…
Bonuses saved, and ONE part of the problem solved…
Wow, Greenpeace have got more aggressive; check out the ramming footage and the activist who GETS IN THE WATER when a whale has been hit!
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=70c_1197246767
I don’t have to mention that the Dutch are a bunch of ignorant MTF’s who are ready to be chipped and euthanasied for their own and world’s safety.
Best is to start with the Dutch Parliament cause genetically speak’n they’re the ones who are the worse in adapting to changing environments and as such come out as the most stupid of all human specimens. Better to prevent any more disasters when the NWO decides to put the gas open. We all know what happened to the Dutch terrorist Marinus and his matches which provided the evidence in a NAZI closed case in a terroristic attack on the Publics Reichstag taken over by Mr Hitler.
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUu8hDlqepSw&pos=9
“Lawmakers pressured President Barack Obama to boost the urgency of anti-terrorism efforts as the Netherlands and Nigeria announced they will start using full- body scanners for passengers.”
Wowie Zowie
Who repairs the Greenpeace boats after they ram ships?
Do they have their own drydock?
If they REALLY want to step it up, they’ll need some T1 steel SPIKES welded across their bows, to which I would gladly offer my services, for a chunk of their UNUSED bank account…
Why didn’t they CUT the line to the (presumably) Whale Carcass?
Hanging off a line doesn’t mean shit…
Think about it…
open waters is OUTSIDE of the jurisdiction of LAW…
Anything goes out there… last time I checked anyway…
They should be going MAD MAX with their boats… quit screwing around…
Playing bumper cars against (I assume) a 1/2″ hull isn’t going to do much except generate more business in a Japanese or Korean Shipyard…
STIMULUS, PIMULUS, TUMULUS.
Most U.S. Stocks Retreat on Concern Fed to Withdraw Stimulus 30 december 2009 (Bloomberg) http://tinyurl.com/y8g99q5
US STARTS TRADE WAR WITH CHINA
U.S. to Impose Tariffs on Chinese Pipe After Ruling http://tinyurl.com/yd4r8sp
Godamnit! Some people (Max & Stacy) have all the luck
French Ring in 2010 With Deepest Champagne Discounts in Decade 30 December (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=a3JgVQ7T38cY
PPPPPffffftttt
Chinese Pipe tariffs…
WHO CARES
http://imarketnews.com/node/6543
What comes this SPRING will REALLY set the bar (possible 99% tariff)
Listen…
There is nothing wrong with protectionism…
http://maxkeiser.ning.com/forum/topics/tariffs-the-smoot-hawley-fairy
in fact, for the USA, it could be a GOOD thing…
since it will give the impetus to restart the HIGH-QUALITY steel industry that the yanks USED to have…
BRING IT ON…
Asian Consumer Spending Spurs Retailers’ Bonds to Best Returns 31 December 2009 (Bloomberg) http://tinyurl.com/yd433g2
RE: Chinese Corporate Bonds
BUBBLES AHOY!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWNSTNwClQY
Oeps! China’s Real Estate Market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen Overheated! Story by Dexter Roberts in Beijing (Bloomberg) Made a short version outof it with the essentials I think.
In Shanghai, prices for high-end real estate were up 54% through September, to $500 per square foot. In November alone, housing prices in 70 major cities rose 5.7%, while housing starts nationwide rose a staggering 194%. The real estate rush is fueling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments.
What’s clear is that the bubble is inflating at the rich end, while little low- cost housing gets built for middle and low-income Chinese. Koyo Ozeki, an analyst at U.S. investment manager Pimco, estimates that only 10 percent of residential sales in China are for the mass market. Developers find the margins in high-end housing much fatter than returns from building ordinary homes.
How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing’s half-trillion- dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available. City and provincial governments have been gladly cooperating with developers: Economists estimate that half of all local government revenue comes from selling state-owned land.
Chinese consumers, fearing inflation will return and outstrip the tiny interest they earn on their savings, have pursued property ever more aggressively. Companies in the chemical, steel, textile, and shoe industries have started up property divisions too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business.
“No one talks about their factories making money these days.”
The worst scenario is that the central authorities let the party go on too long, then suddenly ramp up interest rates to stop the inflationary spiral. Without cheap credit, developers won’t be able to refinance their loans, consumers will no longer take out mortgages, local banks’ property portfolios will sour, and industrial companies that relied on real estate for a chunk of profits will suffer.
Pulling off a soft landing means slowly calming the markets, stabilizing prices, and building more affordable housing. Even real estate executives are getting nervous. Wang Shi, chairman of top developer China Vanke Co., has warned repeatedly in recent weeks about the risk of a bubble. In his most recent comments he expressed fear that the bubble might spread far beyond Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
One difficulty in handicapping the likelihood of a nasty pullback is the opacity of the data. As long as property prices stay high, the balance sheets of the developers look strong. And no one knows for sure how much of the more than $1.3 trillion in last year’s bank loans funded real estate ventures.
Analysts figure a substantial portion of that sum went into property, much of it indirectly. Banks often lend to state-owned companies for industrial purposes. But the state companies can then divert the funds to their own real estate businesses or relend the money to an outside developer.
Meanwhile, the big banks may be cutting back on their real estate risk by selling loans to smaller local banks and credit co-ops.
For now, the party continues. On Dec. 12, Beijing developer Soho China Ltd. celebrated a record-breaking year with a gala at the China Central Place JW Marriott. Guests dined on crab and avocado timbale, white bean soup, and beef tenderloin with wild mushrooms. Soho declined to comment for this story. After a dance performance, a panel debated “The Balance Between Profit and Soul.” When a writer joked he could not afford an apartment — and was still waiting for Soho ChairmanPan Shiyi to give him one — the crowd of 600 well-heeled developers, entrepreneurs, and consultants laughed appreciatively. If the bubble bursts, few will be laughing.
China Property Bubble May Lead to U.S.-Style Real Estate Slump reported by Dexter Roberts 31 December 2009 (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=arp0XyPoRxW0
Giuseppe Bagodonutti
Yeah, man let’s get into the real deal Steal industry man! Or in farming like Jim Willie suggested? Who we gonna sell all the steel to anyways? GM government I guess so in fact the Taxpayers buying the steel for wheel.
I don’t think the Chinese Gov. has curved and stretched Chinas domestic demand fully yet. In fact not even half full it’s consumer demands capacity. And that is a shame but not unexpected. China is like a Mammoth Tanker but unfortunately Mammoths are an extinct species for quiet some time now.
Otherwise ….. http://cc-series.pl/Uploads/RocketMan/RA3_MammothTank1.jpg
@Giuseppe Bagodonutti
Hope you save a place for me at the steel foundry were you will be sure to feel the “Global Warming” and pump some real steal Iron into that back of Iron press donuttis.
but the food better be damn cheap and the steel factory close to moms home if Chinese wages are the general idea so I can cycle from moms home to work cause money for oil and a proper home I won’t have.
Found my a Job so I can stay at Moms. Just a fast Internet connection needed and a computer to remote admin the steel factory
Steel Processing Industry Control System http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q69CuN3vzlA
Until Citigroup changes, it hasn’t http://tinyurl.com/ybutkvg
Icelandic government passes Icesave deal; €12,000 debt per citizen
http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Icelandic_government_passes_Icesave_deal;_%E2%82%AC12,000_debt_per_citizen?dpl_id=146677
@Giuseppe Bagodonutti … invented Technicals
Just a coincidence, that the book called “T/A for Dummies” is written by a lady called Barbara Rockefeller !
No relation I guess !
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Technical-Analysis-Dummies-Lifestyles-Paperback/dp/0764540440/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1262249105&sr=1-1-spell
@Youri Carma …CNBC Squawk Box Europe interview with Egon von Greyerz, December 22, 2009 Vid http://tinyurl.com/yd2ar2j
Finally a MSM guy that speaks the truth on paper-money !
I guess they won’t show this on CNBC in the US !
…. or will they ?
