Calamitous Floods, a Severe Drought and Wheat Prices

Stacy Summary: Wheat prices continue to soar as wildfires continue in Russia and now calamitous floods in Pakistan have destroyed 15% of the nations wheat crop. In Pakistan, 1,110 dead from worst floods in 80 years.

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37 Responses to Calamitous Floods, a Severe Drought and Wheat Prices

  1. Again with my ‘Rusty Guillotine Syndrome’. This is probably the only time I’m glad I have Celiac disease, Wheat could parish for all I care.

    plus, Russia’s got bigger problems to worry about besides their wheat (yes, I know, it’s a big part of their GDP and the countries production out put and capital gains), but now they also have to figure out how to pay back the collateral for this borrowed Bond collection they’ve racked up since 2008, and now, it’s not even helping them stabilize their economy, and pay back the old debts like they were hoping it would.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-02/russia-s-first-six-year-bond-since-08-planned-as-local-debt-funding-lags.html

  2. I think I’ll switch to rice too. The Vietnamese drove out the Americans on just a handful of rice a day. Also, rice growing produces a lot of methane, a potent green house gas, which we’ll need to survive global COOLING.

  3. @Youri – Thanks, I had forgotten about that. Makes CO2-driven warming a bit of a non-issue for serious warming trends in the historical record.

    To throw in with Climategate (pseudo/”political” scientists), IPCC, Kyoto, carbon-tax crowd is to vote on the side of deception, lies, and manipulation in favor of the slavery of the rest of the world.

  4. A nice, red one. LOL. naomi

    Actually, I prefer a light pink, just the right blend of purity and passion.

  5. Based on the analysis of entrapped air from ice cores extracted from permanent glaciers from various regions around the globe, it has been demonstrated that global warming began 18,000 years ago, accompanied by a steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Humans are quite likely the cause of a large portion of the 80 ppm rise in CO2 since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, and from a distance, it looks possible that increasing CO2 may cause atmospheric temperatures rise. However, on closer examination it is seen that CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes– confirming that CO2 is not the primary driver of the temperature changes. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/temp_vs_CO2.html

  6. @Beard,

    I agree. This discussion reminds me of an article in Harpers Mag last year about food shortages throughout history.

    ONe point that was very interesting; the potatoe famine that starved the Irish. There was plenty of food for them it’s just that they didn’t have any money to buy it. Ships went sailing off with commodities, while the Irish starved. It was money, not food.

    I saved that article in a file….it’s around here somewhere…..

  7. I should have bought into Jim Rogers commodities fund! naomi

    If we had an honest money system then speculating in food might be acceptable. However, using leverage (counterfeit money) to drive up the price is food is detestable, IMO.

    He who withholds grain, the people will curse him, but blessing will be on the head of him who sells it. Proverbs 11:26

  8. Good Luck America. You have the scoundrels that got you shipwrecked on the rocks still at the helm……and they want YOU to bail faster. They’re too busy discussing how to split the booty, over steak and caviar. No lunch break for you today, what, are you some kind of welfare queen?

  9. Damn,

    I should have bought into Jim Rogers commodities fund!

  10. @F.Beard,

    A nice, red one. LOL.

  11. Since it is supposed to get cooler for the next 30 years, I’m looking forward to seeing Stacy in a nice sweater on the Stacy and Max show.

  12. TOP STORIES:

    Wheat Price Rally Overdone But Physical Supply Ample -Analyst

    The rally in global wheat prices may be overdone, but prices are likely to rise further due to strong buying, even though global supplies are ample to meet this year’s requirements, a senior analyst said Tuesday.

    Japan Seeks 124,469 Tons Of Food Wheat For October Shipment

    SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)–Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking 124,469 metric tons of food wheat in a tender, a ministry official said Tuesday.

    STORIES OF INTEREST:

    Bangladesh To Halve Planned Wheat Buys From India – Official

    NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)–Bangladesh has decided to halve its planned wheat imports of 400,000 tons from India under a diplomatic arrangement and instead ask its South Asian neighbor for more rice supplies, a senior Bangladesh government official said late Monday.

    US Wheat Production To Fill Supply Gap – Trade

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. is likely to fill any shortfall in global wheat production, market participants told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday, making the current rally in futures prices fundamentally unjustified particularly in light of reports Russia has ruled out restrictions on grain exports.

    Russia Won’t Restrict Grain Exports Despite Drought – Report

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Russia doesn’t plan to restrict grain exports despite the widespread damage to crops following the worst drought to hit the country in decades, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reports Tuesday, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

    Wheat Rally Overblown Despite Russian Forecast Cut – Analyst

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Scepticism over the real impact of severe drought in the Black Sea on global wheat markets emerged Tuesday even as the Russia’s Agriculture Ministry slashed its forecast for the country’s production.

    Ukraine Deputy PM: Grain Export Restrictions To Be Removed

    MOSCOW (Dow Jones)–The recent government decisions restricting the export of grain must be removed and the officials responsible for these decisions should be punished, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Tigipko said Monday, the government press office reported Tuesday.

    West Australia 2010-11 Wheat Crop Forecast Down 30% -CBH

    CANBERRA (Dow Jones)–Wheat production in Western Australia, which typically produces almost 40% of national output, could fall by at least 30% or more this crop year due to dry weather during usually wet winter months, reducing export availability, a key industry participant said Tuesday.

    MARKETS:

    CBOT Corn Review: Lower; Early Gains Retraced On Farmer Sales

    CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–U.S. corn futures ended lower Monday, retracing early advances on farmer selling following an initial spike to 6 1/2-month highs.

    CBOT Soy Review: Hedge Sales Trim Wheat Sponsored-Gains

    CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–Soybean futures ended higher Monday, but settled well off early gains, as hedge selling and technical pressure surfaced to temper upside movement.

    US Wheat Review: Soars On Russian Drought, Fund Buying

    CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–Fund buying and the worsening drought in Russia set U.S. wheat futures on fire Monday.

    US Cash Grain Review: Untamed Market, Wild Weather Patterns

    Uneven exports and variable crop conditions produced a similarly mixed impact on U.S. cash grain prices Monday, allowing corn/soybean markets to slip, despite a rollicking weather-rally in wheat.

    By Iman Dawoud; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207 842 9374; [email protected]

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    08-03-10 0923ET

  13. Climate change/chaos is real – made-made CO2 has little to do with it. From the standpoint of the real forces at play, man-made CO2 warming is a very arrogant position.

  14. @Stacy – some good science on CO2-induced arctic warming – the tree rings show cooling in this study.
    http://www.sott.net/articles/show/213068-Boffins-Arctic-cooled-to-pre-industrial-levels-from-1950-1990

  15. What would people expect would happen after heavy bombings in the high hills? Flash floods, moving earth – things that kill everything on their way. So no wonder for the floods in Pakistan. There isn’t such an amount of water on the Afghani side of the mountains so probably no such issues there but on the Pakistani side things will only get worse with the bombings continuing.

  16. Amandip Singh

    I think its not the Wheat crop in Pakistan rather procured wheat. Wheat season in Pakistan as well as India starts in Nov and ends i.e harvesting done in April. Question arises is the destroyed wheat the buffer stock or the actual wheat needed. At least this story talks about stored wheat not sown one

    http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/business/19-rains-damage-wheat-in-sindh-760-hh-13

  17. @ Stacy

    I forgive you

  18. Fiatmentalist

    “this is called supply and demand, it is the basic physics of free markets; if supply drops, so sharply, prices tend to rise if demand remains the same”

    But that aint the issue Stacey, the issue is the speculation. Moves to engineer and corner markets, hedge funds piling into wheat futures on the back of weather reports.

    Crumpet is right to point this out!!!!

    Because if anyone thinks its ok to take people money from their bank accounts and gamble it on them having no future then theyre already over the edge and theyre taking everyone with them.

    It does seem you pick and choose when and where a free market exists to fit into whatever diatribe you try to spin. Anything monetary related, the bad guys and their ponzi schemes are supressing. Anything enviromental related the free markets telling you the world is going to end.

  19. It is the same as the gold price though. No way to know whether there is an actual shortage or it’s speculation. A clear sign of real trouble should be when speculation is banned.

  20. “Paul Sheard, Nomura’s chief global economist, argues that the current conditions are ripe for the American central bank to take affirmative action to put the US recovery back on track. ”

    “Listen fools! We are going to make that damned moon surrender its cheese by singing folksongs to puppies!”

    Act decisive and you’ll have followers

  21. Britons to pay more for a loaf of bread as wheat prices jump.

    Britons face paying more for a loaf of bread after wheat prices leapt due to a scorching July in Russia and calamitous flooding in Pakistan.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/7923007/Britons-to-pay-more-for-a-loaf-of-bread-as-wheat-prices-jump.html

  22. There is a definite correlation between sun spot activity and weather condition / temperature on earth although this is not at all fully understood. At the moment the sun has had low activity (Ive watched it every day for well over two years) However it seems to be coming out of this slumber. This massive event is behind the sun now and set to hit us early next week : –

    http://solarcycle24.com/pictures/spots5.jpg

    More sun spot activity usually means higher temperature; less sun spot activity = low temperature.

    http://solarcycle24.com/

    I hope Jasper Kirby’s work bring more understanding of the correlation :-

    http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1221088

    Combine this with man made forcing of weather conditions and things can only get hotter, uncertain and unstable.

  23. Crumpet Muncher

    @Stacy. There have been bad years before. Why the panic now?

  24. @Nigel from NZ – every single source provided on this site yesterday on this thread led directly to a lobbying firm financed by the same three firms, Exxon, Philip Morris and (often) Monsanto . . .

    Every single bit of information I linked to was to a university with thousands upon thousands of research materials available online for any scientist in the world to download and review or for any citizen of any country to review; the university sites, if you bother to download the material, could actually be viewed as climate change skeptics material, there are many scientists researching similar areas and challenging each other’s results and methodology . . . this is what skepticism looks like; and it is vitally important and I remain skeptical on any data that is part of a theory until it becomes agreed fact

    All the links provided by doubters led to Denier sites that are clearly propaganda that fits almost identically to the three brief propaganda videos I provided from Philip Morris

  25. Nigel from NewZealand

    Stacey, after all my years of listening to you & Max & being inspired to make change in my local community I was Gob Smacked to read that you found almost all sources of anti AGW to be mouth pieces for big oil. So what about the vested interests who are pro-AGW? Climate Gate is an absolute classic. You’ve just lost a lot of credibility in my eyes as there are dozens upon dozens of non-partisan anti global warming protagonists who do not have any agenda other than to question what is recognised as pseudo science. There may well be climatic changes taking place but it seems unlikely to be as a result of CO2 & unelected global officilas taxing sovereign citizens most definitely is not going to fix the problem. I will view your opinions with some skepticism from now on.

  26. @Marc – that the UK may or may not have grown wine during the Middle Ages does not prove anything; first of all, all the climate 10 different climate charts available from 10 different researchers show that temperature was declining from 1000 to about 1200 and then it rose, so yes, the temperature turned and started to rise from that point: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

    re: wine growing in the UK . . . here is a map of Roman Britain: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Roman_Roads_in_Britannia.svg

    notice the green line, Fosse Way, that leads to the border of Cornwall: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall#Climate

    palm trees grow in Cornwall, as they do in the South of France where grape vines also grow

  27. Marc Authier

    Stop buying US treasuries. Buy wheat. If I remember Russia’s Central Bank a couple of years ago, lent to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae a nice 200 billion dollars. It’s unrelated ? Not really. Russian agriculture is massively underfunded. Their central bank was to busy lending money to finance speculative bubbles in Las Vegas, Florida and California. Serves them right. Put you money at work in Russia dear Russians.

  28. Marc Authier

    Canada is big. Not the case in Eastern Canada.

  29. Marc Authier

    Hey ! Super hyper bumper crops in Québec Libre of corn soya and wheat. Bring it on ! Dedo is right on one thing.

    The last global warming in the Middle Ages allowed even the UK to cultivate wine. You do not cover the super good news in Québec ! Our farmers are TWO months in advance for their harvests and the yields are fantastic.

    Almost no losses. Anyways look up in the sky.
    It’s Mister Sun. And you can’t do nothing against Mister Sun.

  30. This is not such a bad thing. Gluten is very bad for you especially wheat. When I was in Europe for a month last year I had to switch from rice to bread and got joint pains because of it. On rice I run like the wind but fueled on bread I can’t even walk.

  31. @Crumpet – Russia is the third largest wheat exporter in the world, there output is down nearly 20% this year; wheat production is down nearly 20% due to severe flooding in Canada as well, which is world’s 6th largest producer; and more than 15% of Pakistan’s wheat crop is destroyed due to ‘calamitous’ flooding . . . this is called supply and demand, it is the basic physics of free markets; if supply drops, so sharply, prices tend to rise if demand remains the same

  32. Crumpet Muncher

    Russia Today was reporting this morning that wheat prices are being driven unnecessarily high at the moment. No doubt someone is making a fortune off the back of a few fires.

    Don’t want to see any scare mongering on here do we?

  33. Fiatmentalist

    Now this gets interesting. Two years ago they tried to artificialy increase the price of food,mainly via bio fuels, and they got found out for profitiing from starvation.

    Now if there genuinely is a shortage, or at least a perception of threat, what will the UN and the other international and major ecomonies, like the G20 reaction be. Are they going to let the capitalist / hedge funds “free market” “solve” this or are they going to step in and stop the poor people of the world from starving to death. Or are they going to leave it up to Bob Geldof to fix?

  34. Currency INFLATION is the end game, no inflationist ever said we would have demand pull inflation. Tell me one inflationist that said we would have demand pull inflation.

    When people realize that the contracting US economy will not be able to service the government debt, the government debt will become a non performing asset. It will sell off. Remember the dollar is backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US economy.

    Did the Euro rise in value (DEFLATION) when the PIGGS where on the verge of default ? Or did it fall in value(INFLATION) I think we all know the answer to that question.

    It will not be any different for the dollar.